Donald Trump is looking for an off-ramp from the Iran war quagmire. While threatening major escalation that would make parts of the region uninhabitable, he claims that negotiations are taking place.Although real peace negotiations are now out of reach, given the unbridgeable gap in demands, a deescalation is possible.
Countries dependent on energy imports from the Gulf however brace for long term consequences even if the conflict halts. Production capacity is now damaged and Iran is likely to retain a high level of control over the strait.
Europe is less exposed to the supply crisis than Asia but the energy price surge severely aggravates its multiple crises, from manufacturing to debt management. The relegation of nuclear energy leaves the continent particularly exposed to this succession of geopolitical crises, with governments constantly shifting from one external dependency to the next as shocks erupt.
I took part in Al Jazeera’s Counting the Cost. Extracts of my interventions are available here.