The conflict has been marked by Donald Trump’s erratic shifts between negotiation overtures and escalation threats, with no viable strategy in sight, underscoring the pressing need for de-escalation. The current ceasefire is diplomatically unstable, with parties failing to agree even on essential aspects such as the halt of Israeli strikes on Lebanon or on the version of Iran’s proposed list of negotiating points. While the prospect of a genuine peace agreement remains distant, the U.S. withdrawal from the Iranian front is rooted in the necessity of extricating itself from a particularly damaging stalemate. It thus seems unlikely that the United States will seek to fully reopen this front.
Nevertheless, a U.S. disengagement without a concrete agreement paves the way for a new, ambiguous situation. The status of the Strait of Hormuz risks remaining undefined, based on the de facto control Iran exercises. It is therefore crucial to anticipate the dynamics that may prevail in energy markets amid this shifting landscape. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with the emergence of a new transit regime, is poised to exert a structural impact on global supply and price formation. This new reality is likely to have lasting effects on both markets and the real economy. There is little prospect of energy markets fully returning to their pre-war state, even in a de-escalation scenario.
The rest of the article will be published on April 11 on Les Échos website. For similar insights, see my April 1, 2026 article, which already analyzed the implications of a looming de-escalation—with Iran’s de facto control over the management of the Strait of Hormuz: Partial Normalization in Energy Markets After Iran War Deescalation.