Op-ed published by Les Echos on 24 March 2026. As Donald Trump seeks a way out of the Iranian quagmire—to suspend hostilities without any real prospect of peace—I invite you to consider a broader reflection on the strategic void that accompanies this situation:
The war with Iran reveals a structural failure within the American decision-making apparatus, marked by a difficulty in aligning immediate tactical actions with long-term political objectives. This misalignment extends beyond the military sphere. Defense, trade, finance, and technology policies interact in a chaotic manner. The conduct of the trade war has already illustrated this: the legitimate goal of reindustrialization has been overshadowed by geopolitical coercion.
In this very real war, the inability to anticipate the consequences of a failed regime change or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz further demonstrates a loss of overall vision. The military instrument is wielded without a political framework capable of setting a clear direction.
These strategic and material flaws, already evident in the war of attrition in Ukraine, suggest a system grappling with internal contradictions and a reliance on a form of virtual thinking. The strategic framework appears frozen in patterns inherited from the era of the Iraqi adventure, even as industrial and geopolitical realities have radically transformed, reshaping the balance of power. This latest crisis calls on Europe to undertake a difficult reorientation.
Retreat of Monetary Hegemony
Economic sanctions have become a central tool of diplomacy. Yet their use generates side effects that are beginning to reshape the global financial architecture. Initially designed to isolate specific actors without direct military engagement, these measures have accelerated the search for alternatives. Beyond the surge in gold, we are witnessing a proliferation of bilateral agreements in local currencies and the development of parallel clearing systems, which are undermining one of the pillars of American power.
The Iranian conflict acts as a catalyst here. The paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz underscores how power depends not only on dematerialized flows but even more on complex material systems: energy and industrial infrastructures. The West finds itself in a position where its instruments of pressure are losing effectiveness as regional powers adapt, coordinate outside traditional frameworks, and are prepared to escalate.
Industrial Wars of Attrition
Above all, the evolution of recent operational theaters, particularly in Ukraine, has forced a belated rediscovery of the importance of the industrial base. Technological superiority and the development of financial markets may have created the illusion that mass production capacity was secondary. The reality of a war of attrition has shown that economies with much more modest GDPs, but equipped with resilient production systems supported by China, can stand up to technological powers whose production chains are fragmented or optimized for peacetime.
This situation reveals a divide between nominal wealth, driven by services and intangible assets, and the actual ability to mobilize material resources in prolonged crises. Tensions over ammunition stocks and delays in reactivating defense industries illustrate this lack of industrial depth. Although deindustrialization is recognized as a risk to social cohesion and strategic autonomy, the response has remained superficial. Tariff policies are often employed erratically, serving more as diplomatic tools than as genuine levers for rebuilding an integrated productive fabric.
Misalignment of Capital and Educational Erosion
Meanwhile, financial markets continue to channel capital toward high-visibility sectors, to the detriment of fundamental infrastructure. The AI bubble absorbs a disproportionate share of investments, while heavy industry and industrial transformation struggle to attract the necessary funding. This imbalance creates a two-speed economy, where digital innovation advances without an industrial infrastructure capable of withstanding geopolitical shocks.
This crisis of strategic thinking is rooted in the weakening of educational structures, particularly in scientific culture and the classical humanities. The decline in science education reduces the ability to grasp the physical and technical constraints of the real world, fostering a virtual vision where it is believed that large language models can replace versatile engineers. At the same time, the retreat of the humanities deprives decision-makers of the historical intuition needed to understand the long term.
Europe particularly embodies this tension. The continent’s industrial catch-up is hampered by regulatory complexity, compounded by a shift in decision-making power from the technical to the administrative, reducing the capacity for long-term planning. The management of contemporary crises highlights the need for a transition toward a systemic approach, integrating energy security, industrial resilience, monetary stability, and technological innovation within a strategic framework. This transformation cannot occur without questioning decision-making and educational mechanisms. The reallocation of resources must be accompanied by a renewed emphasis on fundamental knowledge, capable of restoring a long-term vision.
This piece was originally published on Les Echos website in French.